Cuba has gone a full month without importing crude oil for the first time in more than a decade, after Mexico halted shipments that had become central to keeping the island’s transport and power systems running.
Shipping and trade data cited by Bloomberg indicate that Cuba recorded zero crude imports in January 2026, the first such month since 2015. The stoppage follows Mexico’s decision to pause deliveries that had been presented as humanitarian assistance and had, in practice, provided a significant share of the island’s feedstock for refining and fuel blending.
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said on 9 February that shipments to Cuba were “currently halted”, describing the decision in the context of avoiding possible repercussions from the United States while seeking other ways to support Havana. Mexico had emerged as Cuba’s largest supplier after Venezuela, long the island’s key partner, saw its ability to ship crude and products constrained amid stepped-up US enforcement targeting sanctioned oil movements.
The interruption has landed on an economy already struggling with chronic shortages of fuel, spare parts and hard currency. In Havana, queues at petrol stations have lengthened, while the government has repeatedly tightened rationing and curtailed activity to conserve diesel and petrol for priority uses, according to reporting on the current crisis.
Aviation has been among the most immediate pressure points. The Financial Times reported that Cuba informed international airlines it would be unable to provide jet fuel until 11 March, forcing carriers either to reduce services or to plan refuelling stops outside the country. Air Canada was cited as having suspended flights, with other operators assessing contingency plans. The warning comes during the high season for tourism, a sector that Cuban authorities have been counting on for foreign exchange.
Tourism infrastructure has also been affected by domestic fuel scarcity. The Financial Times reported that the Spanish hotel chain Meliá closed three properties to conserve fuel, and described additional constraints on resort operations as authorities prioritised essential services. Many large tourism assets are linked to GAESA, a military-run conglomerate that is itself under US sanctions, adding a further layer of complication for external financing and procurement.
The supply shock reflects a wider squeeze on shipments linked to Venezuela. Over recent months, the United States has intensified maritime interdiction and enforcement actions aimed at stopping sanctioned crude from reaching buyers and intermediaries. Reuters reported on US forces boarding a Venezuela-linked tanker, Aquila II, in the Indian Ocean after tracking it from the Caribbean, in the context of a broader effort to disrupt what Washington describes as illicit flows. Earlier in January, Reuters reported that the US seized a Russian-flagged tanker as part of the same campaign to block Venezuelan oil exports.
The tightening of enforcement has had direct consequences for Cuba because it lacks the financial capacity to replace lost barrels quickly on the open market and its domestic output is limited. Cuba’s refining system is ageing and vulnerable to outages, while electricity generation has been repeatedly strained by a shortage of fuel oil and diesel, according to recent reporting on the country’s energy fragility.
While Cuba does not publish comprehensive, timely data on strategic fuel stocks, the scale of the import gap is clear from supplier trends. Bloomberg cited Kpler, the commodities data firm, as showing that Mexico and Venezuela together accounted for close to 80 per cent of Cuba’s imported oil needs last year. The same reporting noted that Mexican barrels had been sufficient, on a monthly basis, to support domestic gasoline production covering roughly a month’s demand.
For Mexico, the pause underscores the narrowing space for policy towards Cuba under renewed US pressure. Washington has warned countries against supplying the island, contributing to Mexico’s caution over continuing shipments. For Havana, the immediate question is how quickly alternative arrangements can be made—whether through new suppliers, product swaps, or increased support from existing partners—at a time when shipping, payment and insurance channels are increasingly constrained by sanctions compliance.
In the near term, the most visible effects are likely to remain practical rather than macroeconomic: fewer buses and freight movements, deeper disruption to aviation, and further cuts designed to keep power generation and essential services operating. With January’s imports at zero and Mexico’s shipments paused, Cuba’s fuel outlook is set to depend on whether maritime enforcement eases, whether suppliers are willing to take legal and commercial risk, and whether the island can secure financing for replacement cargoes.
