Global greenhouse gas emissions are on course to fall in the next decade for the first time since records began, driven by a new round of national climate plans, according to the UN climate change secretariat.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) estimates that, if governments deliver on stated policies and targets, annual emissions would be around 10% lower in 2035 than in 2019. The trajectory marks a turning point after three decades of near-continuous growth, but remains far from the pace required to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
The UNFCCC’s assessment is the first to project a steady global decline based on countries’ latest plans. Yet it also highlights a substantial ambition gap. To keep the rise in global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—a threshold associated with sharply rising climate risks—emissions would need to fall by about 60% by 2035, the secretariat said. Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate chief, described the direction of travel as improving but warned that the rate of reduction is “still not nearly fast enough.”
The analysis lands ahead of next month’s COP30 summit in Brazil, where governments are due to debate how to accelerate cuts this decade and beyond. Many countries have yet to file their final 2035 targets, complicating formal stocktaking. The UNFCCC published a detailed synthesis covering 64 submissions received by a September deadline, representing roughly 30% of global emissions; to provide a fuller picture it also factored in targets announced but not yet formally lodged.
Uncertainty over the United States clouds the global outlook. In December 2024, the then-Biden administration set a new nationally determined contribution (NDC) to reduce US emissions by 61–66% from 2005 levels by 2035. The UNFCCC analysis includes that pledge, but the trajectory is in doubt amid policy rollbacks under President Donald Trump, including proposals to cancel sizeable clean-energy funding and weaken federal programmes. State-level action may offset some federal reversals, but the overall national pathway remains unclear.
China’s position is pivotal. Accounting for roughly 29% of annual global emissions, Beijing announced last month that it would reduce emissions by 7–10% from their peak by 2035—its first absolute economy-wide reduction target. However, China did not specify when national emissions will peak, a variable that materially affects cumulative output. Analysts note China has previously over-delivered on renewables deployment—meeting parts of its 2030 wind and solar goal six years early—raising the prospect of deeper cuts if current momentum continues. The European Union has welcomed the move as a signal of intent, while calling the target insufficient for a 1.5°C-compatible pathway.
Within the EU, debate continues over the bloc’s collective 2035 goal. Member states are weighing an emissions-cut range discussed by the European Commission and capitals, alongside measures to underpin industrial competitiveness and energy security. Draft texts ahead of COP30 show leaders seeking conditions and support for industry to deliver steeper reductions, with some pushing to retain options to adjust targets if economic circumstances deteriorate. Final numbers have not yet been agreed.
The projected 10% global decline reflects policies already legislated and targets announced across major economies. It implies progress in power-sector decarbonisation and electrification, sustained adoption of renewables, and incremental efficiency gains. But the shortfall relative to a 60% cut by 2035 underlines the scale of additional effort required. Independent analyses suggest that closing the gap will hinge on accelerating coal phase-downs, expanding grids and storage to integrate variable renewables, ramping up zero-emission transport, curbing methane in energy and agriculture, and mobilising greater finance for emerging economies.
For negotiators, the practical questions at COP30 will be how to convert directional progress into bankable outcomes, and how to assure credibility where domestic politics are volatile. The UN assessment indicates that timeliness matters: delays in submitting final NDCs constrained the formal synthesis, forcing reliance on publicly announced targets. That approach provides a more complete global picture, but also introduces uncertainty where pledges are not yet anchored in law.
Simon Stiell has urged capitals to “pick up the pace” and arrive in Brazil with implementable plans that bend the curve faster. With the headline numbers now visible, the negotiations are likely to focus on delivery mechanisms—policy durability, carbon-market integrity, timetables for fossil-fuel phase-out, and scaled climate finance—rather than new slogans. Whether the first projected fall in global emissions marks a turning point or a pause will depend on decisions taken in the coming weeks.
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