President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Vladimir Putin “personally fears” agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine because returning to full-scale hostilities afterwards would be difficult for Russia economically, domestically and diplomatically.
Speaking in remarks published on 9 October, Zelenskyy argued that Moscow sees a pause in fighting as risky:
“To go from a full-scale war to a ceasefire and then start a full-scale war again — that is not easy for them. Economically not easy, with society not easy, with the world not easy. And certainly not easy with those countries that still shake Putin’s hand. So for now he chooses war.”
Zelenskyy added that a ceasefire remains possible if pressure on the Kremlin increases sufficiently. He cited several levers he believes could shift Moscow’s calculus: sustained long-range strikes against military targets, stronger sanctions, continued defensive operations on the battlefield, and parallel support for diplomatic initiatives. “Pressure will work when they lose more from the war than they could lose under other scenarios,” he said.
The comments come amid ongoing debate over frameworks to halt hostilities. Kyiv has repeatedly said any step towards ending the fighting must enhance, not weaken, Ukraine’s security, and has pressed partners to maintain sanctions and military support while diplomatic tracks are explored. Earlier this year, Zelenskyy said Russia was prolonging the conflict by refusing to engage on ceasefire proposals and called for further restrictive measures to compel Moscow towards an end to the war.
In his latest remarks, the Ukrainian president framed the Kremlin’s reluctance as partly a question of domestic and international manageability. A formal cessation of fire, he suggested, would raise costs for Russia should it seek to resume high-intensity operations later, given the expectation of economic stabilisation during a pause, public sentiment after a reduction in casualties, and reactions from states that have maintained working ties with Moscow. Ukrainian outlets reporting the comments also quoted Zelenskyy as stressing that the current conflict is not comparable to earlier, lower-intensity phases of fighting, underscoring the scale of the decisions facing Russian leadership.
Kyiv’s position has included backing “peace initiatives” alongside continued defence. Zelenskyy has previously set out the need for an unconditional cessation of fire as a first step toward a broader settlement that would address security guarantees and the withdrawal of Russian forces. He has also linked progress on the diplomatic track to the effectiveness of sanctions and the degradation of Russia’s frontline capabilities through Ukrainian strikes on military infrastructure.
The remarks on 9 October were published the same day as Zelenskyy referenced the potential role of the United States in brokering a cessation of hostilities. He said Ukraine would nominate U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if Washington were to secure a ceasefire that halted Russia’s offensive operations. Ukrainian and international media carried the statement, noting that any nomination would be contingent on a concrete outcome.
Zelenskyy’s assessment of Moscow’s incentives aligns with Kyiv’s wider argument that military, economic and diplomatic pressure must be applied in parallel. Ukrainian officials have urged partners to close remaining loopholes in export controls, tighten enforcement against sanctions evasion, and accelerate deliveries of air defence, artillery ammunition and long-range capabilities, which Kyiv says have already complicated Russia’s logistics and rear-area operations. They have also continued to attend international meetings aimed at building consensus around principles for a sustainable peace, including territorial integrity, accountability for aggression, and security guarantees to prevent renewed attacks.
For Moscow, a formal ceasefire would likely entail expectations from a range of states on compliance, monitoring and the prohibition of immediate escalatory actions — constraints that could make any subsequent return to large-scale offensive operations more costly in political and economic terms. Kyiv’s view is that these anticipated costs are the reason the Kremlin prefers to avoid entering into a ceasefire, while maintaining pressure along the front and striking Ukrainian infrastructure.
As winter approaches, both sides have highlighted energy and critical infrastructure protection as priorities. Ukrainian authorities have warned that Russia may intensify strikes on power facilities; they have appealed for further air-defence systems and repair equipment while emphasising domestic gas production and imports to mitigate potential shortages. The government has said that these measures, alongside external pressure on Russia’s war-sustaining sectors, are part of the same effort to raise the costs of continued aggression and make a ceasefire, under conditions acceptable to Kyiv, more achievable.
Zelenskyy’s latest statements therefore set out a two-track approach: keeping military pressure on Russian forces while backing diplomatic proposals that could stop the fighting, provided they do not create pathways for a rapid resumption of large-scale hostilities. Whether Moscow will alter its stance remains unclear; Ukrainian officials continue to argue that only a combination of sanctions, isolation and battlefield setbacks can change the Kremlin’s calculations.
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