Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian airlines and issued a warning against any attempt by New Delhi to alter the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty, marking a further escalation in tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours following a recent militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The decision was announced on Thursday by the office of Pakistan’s Prime Minister after an emergency meeting of the country’s National Security Committee. The move follows India’s response to a deadly assault on a tourist location in southern Kashmir on 22 April, in which 26 people were killed by suspected militants.
Indian authorities stated that they had identified three suspects linked to the incident, two of whom were reportedly Pakistani nationals. However, New Delhi has not released detailed evidence to substantiate these claims. Despite the lack of publicly available proof, the Indian government responded by suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark agreement that has regulated water sharing between the two countries for over six decades.
In addition to the suspension of the water treaty, India has shut down the sole land border crossing point between the two countries.
The Pakistani government issued a firm response, stating that any threat to its sovereignty or the security of its citizens would be met with “firm reciprocal measures in all domains”. The official statement added that any effort by India to block or divert water to which Pakistan is entitled under the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty would be regarded as “an act of war”.
This development marks one of the most serious deteriorations in relations between Islamabad and New Delhi in recent years. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has long been held up as a rare example of successful cooperation between the two states, even during times of military conflict.
India’s decision to suspend the treaty follows its public accusation that the 22 April attack had cross-border dimensions. While the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has yet to release specific intelligence linking the perpetrators to any Pakistani state agency, the move has been interpreted by analysts as an attempt to exert pressure on Islamabad.
The situation on the ground remains tense. On Wednesday, security was heightened in parts of Jammu and Kashmir, with Indian security forces patrolling key roads and checkpoints, particularly near tourist areas that have seen an uptick in militant activity in recent months. In Marhama village, near the site of the recent attack, local residents reported a continued heavy security presence and the suspension of public transport services.
Pakistan’s warning on the Indus river is likely to heighten concerns among international observers, especially given the critical importance of the waterway to agriculture and drinking water supplies in both countries. The Indus system supports livelihoods for millions of people across both sides of the border.
Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation have so far yielded little. There has been no indication from either side that backchannel talks are underway, and official contacts remain frozen. While both countries have experienced periods of heightened tension before, the current standoff is notable for the speed with which retaliatory steps have been taken, as well as the nature of the measures employed — particularly those involving airspace and water rights.
Flights between the two countries had already been limited in number due to longstanding restrictions and the absence of commercial or diplomatic normalisation. The closure of Pakistani airspace will likely impact Indian flight routes that use Pakistani territory for overflight en route to the Middle East and Europe, potentially resulting in longer journey times and higher operational costs for Indian carriers.
In Islamabad, political leaders across party lines have expressed support for the government’s measures, framing them as necessary steps to uphold national sovereignty. In New Delhi, meanwhile, there has been no official response to Pakistan’s airspace closure or its threat regarding water flows.
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